[00:00:00]

Matty A.: Nothing will stop us from covering stocks, real estate investing and personal finance, even a family vacation. So we are in here and we're ready to get it today. Yeah,

Ryan Breedwell: I I'm jealous of the weather you're having there right now cuz it looks like either you are the second coming or the, there's no rain going on cuz.

We are getting it hit here in northern ca. I will just

Matty A.: say it is about seventies, beautiful weather, and let's just say I'm eating and drinking at my fair share for the both of us.

Ryan Breedwell: You'll come back closer to me, a little softer around the [00:01:00] jawline. Oh

Matty A.: yeah, I am. Definitely eaten eaten my way through Hawaii, but that's the way it's supposed to be.

Absolutely. You guys know I love good food, good wine good spirits, and of course good family memories. It's of funny, I used to literally, when I first got into entrepreneurship, this was like, one of the fantasies I had was one day I was gonna have a family. We were gonna be traveling and having fun and eating and drinking, whatever we wanted.

And it's cool to think about how we're actually getting to, to live that. And obviously a big part. Which we focus on, this show is because of smart. diligent, consistent, prudent investment decisions that, I've worked hard on over the last 12 years of my professional entrepreneurial journey.

And obviously you've been a big piece of that over the, the last five, six years in terms of moving a lot of my stuff outta real estate and getting a little bit more holistic, more diversified into the financial markets, which we are going to cover some great topics today. We got consumer confidence, we got personal consumption [00:02:00] expenditures.

we got some updates and what's been going on in the market. Quick little S B V update or S V update. And ultimately, We've got some new data on our foreclosures and delinquencies. Finally heating up. I know they are for sure in one sector we're gonna cover that. Housing data's catching up a little bit here and we're starting to see whether or not what the Fed has been doing.

Is actually working. So we're gonna talk a little bit about that. And really a big question for a lot of people right now in times of uncertainty of all of these moving pieces is what do you do with your money during this stage of the cycle? We're gonna get Mr. Breedwell's take on that. But before we jump in today, guys, don't forget to hit that subscribe button.

If you enjoy the podcast, you enjoy the show. If this is serving you, supporting you, helping you on your money journey, then don't forget to leave us a review. In iTunes takes two seconds. It means the world to us and helps us reach and impact more people on their financial freedom journey. And of [00:03:00] course, if you guys haven't taken advantage, especially in times, like right now, the free financial x-ray that Ryan and his amazing team do, you can text the word x-ray.

You can see that up here on the screen to 8 4 4 4 4 7 15 55. And Mr. Breal, when they text that, what's gonna happen and what are they gonna get as a result?

Ryan Breedwell: Yeah. What we'll do is we'll just get a review of what you're currently doing, either on your investment accounts or your insurance policies.

We'll incorporate your real estate holdings if you have them, and anything else that you might consider an asset and. Normally, like I said, the biggest thing that we uncover it happens almost every single day when I get people coming in, is just the fees that people are paying a lot of times are tucked away or hidden.

And so we'll go ahead and identify that, we'll see the impact on of that on your account. And then we'll go over maybe some financial recommendations that I might make to make some improvements. If you think those are a good idea, we can implement them. If not, you'll have all the data and there's no cost or obligation.

So it's a really good idea. And we call it the financial x-ray, cuz you can just take a look under what's, [00:04:00] what's more obvious on the surface and see what's underneath.

Matty A.: Beautiful. And for all my credit investors, for those of you who are, looking for passive income opportunities, you don't have that deal flow yourself, you maybe don't wanna do all that kind of work.

Get on my credit investor deals list where you guys will get to see the deal flow that I am looking at. We put out the Green Coffee Company offering this last year, which was an absolute killer, and there's still a little bit of room left on that one. We're in the tranche. C, so series C, third tranche, if you're looking to get more information on that, all you gotta do is text the word deals to 8 4 4 4 4 7 15 55.

And probably what I'm more excited about is the one that I'm gonna be personally be offering in a company that I am a partner and an investor in. That I'm spending a lot of time in that I'm gonna be announcing here in the coming weeks. So if you wanna know more information to be the first on that you can text the word deals to that same phone number.

And of course, don't forget to check out all the amazing stuff that we have@millionairemindcast.com, a lot of updated tools, [00:05:00] resources, calculators, how to track your investments, your holdings, your net worth, all kinds of great stuff there. Specifically for a Millionaire Mind Cast family. You guys can check that out@millionairemindcast.com.

So with that being. What are we seeing in the market today, Mr. Bradwell?

Ryan Breedwell: Right now I'm looking at the s and p. It's the s and p market weight. It is down about three quarters of 1% right now, but the equal weight s and p, which is every single company in there with equal weighting, so it doesn't give favor to companies that are doing better.

Meaning technology stocks are still that, the heavier heavyweights in the s and p, that's what's being dragged down today. The there's a very much of a little kind of a risk off attitude to some of the riskier bets that people have been making over the past couple years that have panned out.

And now they're like saying If we're gonna be in this kind of sticky situation where we have to get through inflation still, we have some interest rate cuts coming at the end of the year. I want to be in companies that can produce dividend and yield during that period of time and also [00:06:00] have good balance sheets.

And I think that's appropriate when you get into situations like this. You can't just speculate and buy names like Tesla names the ARC Fund and just expect it to work out. Those have done well year to date given that risk on. Was a little bit more sexy from January through February, but now people are understanding that the Fed's not gonna do a hard pivot.

I, and I don't believe they're going to do a hard pivot. I think we probably got one more potential raise that's about 50 50 right now. And then for sure we have a pause coming in. June with cuts potentially in the July or further meetings. But Fed's futures markets are pricing in a 75 basis point plus cut by the end of the year.

And I was saying even last year, they're gonna raise interest rates, but they're gonna have to cut them because we don't have an economy that does very. With high interest rates we have the stock market, for example, is backed tons still by mortgage backed securities. So we need the housing market and the real estate market to do well, and the real estate market does well when the stock market does good because interest rates [00:07:00] stay low.

So it's this level of sympathy. They're not directly correlated as far as moving in lockstep, like they both go up or they both go down. As we've talked about many times before, the stock market tends to precede the real estate market. And the real estate market tends to lag the stock market.

So when we start seeing conditions turn around in the re in the stock market, We then can say, okay, this is, this might be or is likely indicative that the real estate market is probably going to get some juice to it. And normally we can see people, as we were talking about earlier, putting their money into fixed income securities because we also do have rates, rate cuts coming and bonds do have that inverse relationship to interest rates.

So if they. Will yield go down. Yes, you'll get paid the same amount, but it'll be an equivalent coupon rate lower because they will raise your face value. So this is like the 2008 scenario where interest rates were cut very aggressively, and that's why bonds did so well versus stocks in that year. That's [00:08:00] generally the inverse relationship that stocks and bonds have with each other, and it's healthy to have that because then when you have a correlation of quality fixed income alternatives and equities in your portfolio you just fare better.

I have a lot of my clients, in the 60 40 kind of mix, we keep them in that. . And they're not making a ton of money today, but they're may be down one or two basis points because the bonds are doing well. Yep. There's always a bull market somewhere. That's the fun part about investing.

It's just finding where to put that money and then being confident in keeping your money in those positions through times of turmoil

Matty A.: like we've been going through. Yep. Yeah, we saw mortgage rates hit their lowest level in just over six weeks on Friday. Obviously, I think the bad news in the banking sector and some of the fears around that, just on a surface level has, really.

Pushed certain investors to, larger institutional investors to pull money outta the stock market, move it into the bonds. And of course, obviously that fares well for rates. Now based on some of the [00:09:00] data that we're seeing come out Case Scher, national House Price Index, the declining trend continued.

To 3.8% year over year increase in January. And really 2023 began just as 2022. It ended with US home prices falling for the seventh consecutive month, and we've really continued to see that trend move on. But in terms of the real estate market being something that, people are expecting there to be.

So I keep seeing on Twitter and, honestly it. , it makes me laugh. And at the same time, it probably goes to the same sentiment of what in your sector of finance, right? Is a lot of people pushing these fearmongering headlines and the real estate market is gonna crash, and there's just no signs of that.

Now, I will say we're seeing some definite cracks in the commercial sectors, and we can talk about that in a second. . But in terms of, there being some serious foreclosures or delinquencies, Freddie Mac just reported this last week that the [00:10:00] single family housing seriously serious delinquency rate in February was down again from 0.66 down to 0.65.

So Freddy's rate is down year over year from 0.99% in February of 2022. And to give you guys a little bit of a, some context to what that number actually is in February of 2010, which was the peak of serious delinquencies according to Freddie Mac data that was 4.2. So we're at 0.65 right now as compared to in 2010 when we all know what was going on then, right?

You could literally sneeze and come across the foreclosure and make some pretty good coin off of it. That was at 4.2% following the housing bubble, and that peaked at 3.17% in August. of 2020 during the pandemic, and that again was when people were, freaking out, going to the banks, getting in forbearance plans, pausing their mortgages, things [00:11:00] like that.

We're at 0.65%. So we're not seeing any signs of, real. Concern at this stage in the single family market. Now that being said, we're seeing some good adjustments in housing prices, and I think right now what we're seeing overall is just the fact that consumers on both sides of the transaction.

Appear to be just feeling a little bit more cautious about the housing market, right? We're just not seeing as many people be as aggressive. And you're still seeing the sellers that really are hoping and wanting for more, because if you're gonna sell your house, especially when we're talking about 40% of the mortgages in the current climate, were originated in 2020.

in 2022, which is absolutely insane, obviously, because we saw rates where they were at. People aren't gonna be as inclined to sell and, get out of a rate like that and get into something way [00:12:00] more expensive, especially when we're not seen as much inventory available. Which Altos reported that, active single family inventory was down, again, 0.3% week over week, which puts inventory down 50% compared to the same week in 2019.

So there's really not a whole lot to choose from right now as well. So the single family real estate housing market is really strong right now. , we're starting to see some potential cracks or at least softening in certain sectors, of course, in commercial real estate and specific asset classes. Right now the commercial real estate debt market is probably by far the most potentially concerning or looming Concerns when it comes to what we're seeing with, obviously bigger banks tightening up right now, they're really not looking at a lot of different asset classes outside of maybe your bigger fastballs, the.

Apartments and, [00:13:00] multi-family housing and some of the safer ones. But even then, we're starting to see this last week some data came out about with Fannie or Freddie Mac, that multi-family delinquencies have been increasing and we're at 0.13% in February. Up from 0.08% in February of 2022.

So I think, that's something to maybe pay attention to a little bit. And I think we're starting to see some of these adjustable rate mortgages and, mez debt and certain, lending. Products that people took thinking that the market was gonna continue to run the way it was trending, a year or two years ago with that big shift in, turn over the last, eight to nine months.

We're starting to see some of those people that didn't do proper underwriting, proper management, and really have proper exit strategies and plans for the assets that they were buying. Getting into a little bit of trouble. It's gonna be interesting to see what cracks continue to reveal themselves and how big they are in some of the commercial sectors of real estate, which I [00:14:00] think are gonna present some great opportunities all the way from the institutional level down to the mom and pop level.

That being said, , I don't think we're gonna see anything too catastrophic in the single family housing sectors right now just because of what, we have in terms of inventory rates are still somewhat manageable for people to get into. And hopefully based on what we're seeing from the Fed and potentially a pivot, at some point over the next 12 to 24 months, which we're expecting, things are gonna continue to trend, I think, in the right direction, in a stable direction for single family.

I agree

Ryan Breedwell: and the reason that it's not concerning to me is just simply because I don't see a runaway in inventory. That was one of the biggest issues that kind of ripped the lid off in 2008 was we had all of this stuff to sell and there was nobody that could buy it. Yeah. Cause everybody was losing their neck.

So then that tanks the value of the asset along with floods the market with a bunch of stuff that people don't. [00:15:00] So that's not happening. The kind of annoying thing is we almost can't catch a break here because it's one thing after another. Now it's the banking stuff. And like I told everybody, it was being way overblown.

I A bank, half the size of them bought them. Clearly the banks are, it's just a bad decision by one bank. And then you have, you have people getting on the media saying, Hey, we see in 191 other banks that could potentially have that problem. Great. Potentially is a very broad word.

How poten, how much potential is there to have that problem? And then you have the other issue with, when they push that narrative, you're going to continue to encourage people to run. Deposits and put them into larger institutions, which they're not going to care. But the larger institutions are, if the kind of moniker that's being passed around as well.

I'm not, I'm gonna take my money out of the small banks because if the small banks fail, I won't get my money. But if the big banks fail, I will. SV V was a small bank and they fail. , [00:16:00] but they didn't fail because of lack of the amount of money they failed cuz of lack of liquid assets. They had all the damn assets.

I can't stress that enough. And the whole bullshit about the Fed's balance sheet jumping up. Yeah. They had to take those bonds and put them on their balance sheet to sell 'em. So that's what happens when you add things to your balance sheet. You're gonna see that tank back down. . And what I think what's happening right now is that news is baking itself into the Nasdaq because the NASDAQ started to run over the past few days.

We have a short, not in my portfolio, I'm still buying queues. But we have a short in a lot of our clients' portfolio on the NASDAQ specifically, and we also have a short on the s and p in some portfolios, up about 20% of the

Matty A.: s and p actually. So that

Ryan Breedwell: type of motion is to be expected when people say, oh, Fed's not gonna jump back in and pause.

Qe, they are going to Conti. Yeah, they're gonna continue drawing those assets off their balance sheet. They have to, in [00:17:00] order to get interest rates back to where they need to be, they need to flood the assets, the bond market with those assets so that yields go down because the yield spread right now on what a bank can afford to pay versus what you can go and buy.

They can't. need to get, they need to get the interest rates lower on bonds so that they can load their portfolio up on those bonds that they can afford. They can afford a two in a quarter, a 3% bond. They can't afford to buy these and offload these bonds yet cuz interest rates haven't cut.

They have to buy the bonds as, it's almost like catching a falling knife. They have to buy the bonds as they're falling in yield because they need their portfolio's face value to come up to a certain level before they can hit that strike. . That is the balancing act that's being played in the stock market right now.

You're not gonna hear any or very many news outlets talking about that, cuz it's not sexy. But that's the ultimate thing. It's a situation that's happening right now, held to maturity. Securities that are in a negative position

Matty A.: are not an issue. [00:18:00] It's an on paper loss. It is

Ryan Breedwell: not. and if anything, it's a tax write off for these corporations.

, they get back in on their tax side. They want to hold these securities to maturity though, so that they can recover some of the face value. They're still gonna sell them at a loss. They are, that's not rocket science. It's been happening for many years, but they wanna hold them to maturity a little longer because they know that the interest rate cuts are happening.

And if they didn't think that was gonna happening, they would sell them for a loss and re. , like we see micro strategy when they were overweight on their Bitcoin position and they had bought it all at a, at around a 46, 47 price, they had to make the hard decision to offload it and then rebuy it immediately.

We've already seen companies of a smaller size finagle through stuff like that. Is it. Is it something that you want to be going through? No. Is it navigatable? Yes. So it's a lot of this stuff, again, is just being way overblown.

Matty A.: And the banks they're not in the business of not making money, so when [00:19:00] the current landscape is not as frothy, as it was for quite some time. They're going to slow down, they're going to pause, they're gonna tighten things up a little bit, right? And they're ultimately gonna let some of the things in the economy play out. And that's ultimately a part of every banking cycle, or every economic cycle is, things get sexy and frothy and take advantage of it while it's there.

And when things start to shift, which we know. Has been happening over the last nine months, especially when the fed's been showing their cards as they have been. They ultimately are gonna respond accordingly. And so of course they're gonna always try and stay in front of what's going on a global and a national, economic landscape.

And as things continue to play themselves out, which is what we talk about on the show, this is all just taking account for the data that we're seeing and making the best predictions we can think. [00:20:00] based on what some of these bigger players are going to do as that data comes out, and that's why it's so important right now to have your financial house in order, in my opinion, is because in these kind of times it gets a lot harder to get access to certain things that ultimately were way more accessible when things were as sexy and as lucrative for.

but that's just not the climate anymore. It's just not the current landscape. However, like you said, there's still massive opportunity in these particular market cycles. You just have to be that much more dialed in. That much more resourced and capitalized and ultimately right, connected to the right conversations, so that way you're not getting duped into what ultimately mainstream media does, which is luring the masses into following what narratives they want them to follow.

Wow. Everybody else who's really a steward of the real conversations and the real data and the real [00:21:00] decisions that are being made that impact your financial future are out there crushing it. And so right now it doesn't mean big money is not making money right now because you're hearing on the, mainstream news.

That X and Y and Z are having troubles or struggling, or this is a potential risk, or this is systemic and right. Like that just it's, it doesn't mean that people aren't making money right now. It just means you have to be that much better of a steward of your own financial portfolio, paying attention to the right players, being involved in the right conversations, which is ultimately what we like to talk about on this show each and every week.

Ryan Breedwell: Yep. And I've, I ran into, , the s c D thing helped me make one of my predictions come true with the rate hike cuz we were definitely walking into a 50 basis point rate hike. The we were, yeah, naturally bank issues are a disinflationary item historically and always. So that one helped me out.

But we've really been calling the rate cuts on par and you have to remember when you have places like Goldman Sachs about, 45 minutes [00:22:00] ago saying, oh yeah, we don't. A scenario for aggressive rate cuts. Those are the same

Matty A.: people that are, that

Ryan Breedwell: were telling you last September that there was gonna be no sticky inflation and that we were gonna start probably not having to do a lot of rate cuts through this year.

And they were completely wrong. Same banks and same individuals in 2008 that said they had no financial exposure to the downside and then that was exposed.

Matty A.: So you have to be careful because if

Ryan Breedwell: it was as easy as listening to the news and picking stocks or looking at lines, And and, oh, I like this Twitter handle, and they sound sexy when they talk.

I If the, if all that stuff worked, those institutions would not have time to do the things or have time to talk to you or have your, or lend their information to your ear. . Something else I'll share. I think don't know if Mark Twain said it. I'm almost thinking he did, but somebody of relevance has said that, you might wanna question a stated outcome if everybody is expecting it.

It was something along the lines of that how can everybody be expecting something and be in the know and it happened. That just doesn't make a ton of. . Yeah. So I think if everybody's calling for a [00:23:00] recession, I think if everybody's calling for no rate cuts how am I magically calling and again, I gotta fall my sword on the last one, but how am I magically able to forecast rate decisions with the same data that everybody else has?

It's because I don't listen to the mainstream median and I don't follow headline news. We follow what the charts say and what consumers are doing. I can barely. at the mall Thursday through Sunday when I'm trying to go there, there is no recession. People are going to continue to spend money and they're just gonna do that because they were trained to do that by Covid.

They've already seen what it's like when they don't spend money. They've already been put down in their house. They don't want to go through that again. It's changed consumer behaviorism likely for the long term. So were they buying maybe less designer goods? The Gucci, the Louis Vuittons. , but we see it evident that people are still buying depreciating assets and assets that are not considered staples like used cars.

Prices just went up again last week. Yeah. New cars are beginning to sell. We have federal tax [00:24:00] rebates for people switching out of their combustion engines into all electric vehicles. There are things going on that are just going to stave off. The woe is me and the beans and bullets assumptions.

It's just not going to happen. And a lot of the stuff I see, like right now I think the next thing it's gonna start snapping down is gold. We own gold, but gold's been on too much of a run, it's way overbought the past couple weeks. People are, and

Matty A.: it's been way overbought, right? Because of what went on with the banks and then obviously saw what went on with crypto.

And then we

Ryan Breedwell: find out, oh look, a hundred billion dollar market cap company, a mid-cap size company is buying. Is buying at svb, all their assets, everybody's gonna be made whole for I think 500 million. Was that how much it was? Yep. Hundred million for a couple billion in assets. They just bought free

Matty A.: money.

Yeah. They got it at, they got it at about a 20, what did they say? A 20 to 25% valuation.

Ryan Breedwell: I think they got it at about a quarter to a third of the value of the print market value of assets. That's a. . So that's

Matty A.: a steal. What

Ryan Breedwell: loses in capitalism, [00:25:00] somebody else is bound to win. That's how capitalism works.

It requires a loser and there always has to be a loser for there to be a winner. So it's not as scary as people news outlets or anything is making it sound to be. It's op opportunistic. And you just saw Berkshire Hathaway increase their oxy. Oxide petroleum by another few percent.

They're buying stock like mad men. Why? Because when there's blood in the streets, that's the time to buy. Not say, oh man, Tesla was up 30, 40, 50% the last three

Matty A.: years. Now I'm gonna get in. You missed the train, you missed it. So it's gonna be very interesting to see where. , what the Fed does at this next meeting based on some of this data starting to catch up because.

It, it's funny like what I'm seeing out here, let's just say I'm not seeing any signs of a recession out here in Hawaii right now. The amount of people that are here spending money on [00:26:00] vacation, the amount of people that are going down this strip, and I'm looking in Fendi and I'm looking in all these freaking stores, man.

And they are packed full of people spending money right now. So it's very interesting, to see what on the. And some of the fear mongering that's happening. And then as you start to go out into the real world and actually see what people are doing and what their actions are not always aligned.

So I am of course gonna be curious to see we got what personal consumption expenditures that have come out Thursday is coming out this week. Yeah. Is that household spending coming out this week? Correct. Headline

Ryan Breedwell: and core. Both expected to be Down, which will be good. That'll be indicative.

That inflation is that's

Matty A.: What we're looking for, which the housing data is gonna be a big piece of that and we're seeing more of that data continue to trickle out and catch up. I saw report

Ryan Breedwell: that now pretty much the housing market is fully pulled back, so it may have a small more to go to, to break below [00:27:00] its par.

This pre covid run as far as its momentum, but it should trough and swing here pretty soon. So yeah, everything is

Matty A.: pointing. Consumer confidence was a beat this last week, correct? Yeah. And then we got consumer sentiment coming out. Now is

Ryan Breedwell: if there is interest rate cuts, people are saying yeah.

Historically that's led to a a pullback in the stock market. Yes, because people are gonna buy bonds. So they're just gonna shift into bonds again, they're not, they're the market's not crashing. They're just shifting assets. Like again, they did in 2008, which is why the stock market fell so much. It wouldn't have fallen as much if people weren't selling.

Matty A.: So right now to wrap all of this up to the, to the retail investor, right? The institutional players. and the larger, global players are really driving a lot of the markets. You're a retail investor in a climate, like right now. What do you continue to do during this stage of the economic cycle and the financial cycle that we're in when it comes [00:28:00] to your investments and the capital that you have access.

Ryan Breedwell: I am as always, I'm buying quality. I'm not speculating in a market like this. I'm searching for yield, even in growth portfolios, so we can get paid to wait. and the stock market is not a, an item you leverage into long term be successful. So I am buying quality, I'm paying, I'm going towards dividend paying assets.

That's what I'm looking for. And I think that small cap value and large cap value and large cap blend companies that would fall into those categories are going to be the way in the truth for the next few months until we get interest rate cuts settled, and then there's going to see a rotation back to your.

Higher beta names and higher beta areas like tech, like communications like consumer discretionary, some other names there. I'm still confident in my call. I need about another 11 or 12% on the s and p to hit to that 44. Hundred zone. [00:29:00] But I still think that is possible, especially if we do get the interest rate cuts.

I think we're gonna have an opposite movement where the Fed has cut or pivoted in the past and that has caused a pullback in the market. I think just like we had an untraditional parallel move in bonds and stocks last year, they both went down. I think we're gonna have an unparalleled movement in stocks going back up with bonds while interest rates fall.

I don't know, but I think that is highly likely to happen. And again, my favorite thing to say, Time will tell.

Matty A.: Time will tell. And we will continue to track all the data and keep you guys included in every. Piece of that conversation if you got questions for us, shoot those in at 8 4 4 4 4 7 15 55.

We didn't record live today cuz I'm on and breed Pacific time. So we didn't get the chance to streamline for you guys on our normal 2:00 PM Pacific Standard Time. That being said, each and every week. Live on YouTube. [00:30:00] We're recording this, answering questions live and of course you can always shoot your questions into that text line.

If you didn't take advantage of the free financial x-ray yet, be sure to text in x-ray to 8 4 4 4 4 7 15 55. If you're an accredit investor, you wanna get 'em my deals list, especially with this new offering coming out. Be sure to text the word deals to that same phone number. That being said, we appreciate you guys tuning in each and every week on your wealth building journey.

Don't forget, keep investing in yourself and your wealth on your March 2 million, and we'll see you guys in next week's episode. Cheers.

Ryan Breedwell: Cheers.